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The CIES Football Observatory unveils its exclusive approach for long-term success

Moreover, issue number 91 of the Big-5 Weekly Post presents the results of the analysis of the ASAR ratio for clubs from the five major European championships. The ratio is obtained by dividing the average stay of players in the first team squad of their employer club (the longest, the best) with their age at recruitment (the youngest, the best).

Indeed, the analyses carried out since 2005 show a strong correlation in all countries between this ratio and the results obtained by clubs at the end of the season. It is thus not surprising to note that the five clubs that are currently at the top of the table in their respective league are also in the top 20 positions of the ASAR ranking at European level:

  • Real Madrid (2nd both at big-5 league level and Spain)
  • Juventus (7th and 1st in Italy)
  • Bayern Munich (9th and 2nd in Germany)
  • Chelsea (11th and 1st in England)
  • Marseille (19th and 2nd in France)

From an ASAR perspective, the most over-performing teams so far are Sevilla, Genoa and Valencia. Conversely, Real Sociedad, Borussia Dortmund, Everton, Cagliari and Lille clearly under-performed.

Our academic team is at the service of professional clubs to study their squads in greater detail.

Updated transfer value calculator

Thanks to our tool, anyone can obtain an accurate, up to date transfer value for players taking part in the five principle markets of European football: the English Premier League, Spanish Primera Liga, German Bundesliga, Italian Serie A and the French Ligue 1.

Our statistical model is based on almost 1,500 fee paying transfers having taken place at big-5 league club level from 2009 onwards. The correlation between estimated and actually paid sums is greater than 80%. This shows that we have been able to reveal the logics of the transfer market. This allows us to anticipate events and highlight market bias.

Our team is at service of market actors for expert audits for both big-5 league players and professional footballers playing in other championships at worldwide level.
Do not hesitate to access the calculator here.

Best players according to area of play: shining Ronaldo

Our rankings highlight not only the best performing players overall, but also those who performed the best with regard to teammates. This approach allows us to pick out more players who are not yet part of the top clubs. This is particularly useful from a scouting perspective. To limit bias, only footballers having played at least 66% of match time since the start of the season are included in the study.

In absolute terms, the best big-5 league players at present are Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid) both in shooting and chance creation, Eden Hazard (Chelsea) in take on, Xabi Alonso (Bayern Munich) in distribution, Mathieu Coutadeur (Lorient) in recovery and Javi Manquillo (Liverpool) in rigour.

At the top of the relative rankings, we find Charlie Austin (QPR) in shooting, Xabi Prieto (Real Sociedad) in chance creation, Federico Cartabia (Córdoba) in take on, Roberto Trashorras (Rayo Vallecano) in distribution, Alaixys Romao (Marseille) in recovery and Mathieu Bodmer (Nice) in rigour.

Actors from professional clubs can contact us to enquire about our range of products in the domain of performance analysis.

Key performance indicators

  • Shooting: ability to exploit goal opportunities through accurate shooting
  • Chance creation: ability to putting teammates in a favourable position to score
  • Take on: ability to create advantageous situations by successfully challenging opponents
  • Distribution: ability to keep a hold on the game through efficient passing
  • Recovery: ability to minimise opponents’ chances through proficient interception work
  • Rigour: ability to minimise opponents’ chances through robust duelling

Real-Barcelona tops the rankings for the most “expensive” matches

In the other championships, the most “expensive” matches this season were Manchester City-Chelsea (578 million €), Paris St-Germain-Marseille (503 million €), Bayern Munich-Borussia Dortmund (272 million €) and Inter-Napoli (263 million €).

This analysis shows the increasing impact of money at the highest level of European football and the difficulty encountered by the vast majority of teams to reach the performance levels of the richest clubs. This state of affairs leads to more predictable results.

Thus, the five clubs touted by our research team as favourites at the start of the season are either in the first (Bayern Munich, Chelsea) or second place (Paris St-Germain, Barcelone, Rome) of their respective championships.

New record high for expatriate presence in the big-5

The expatriate presence is particularly high in the English Premier League (59.3%. A new record high since 2009 was measured this season in Italy (54.8%) and Spain (38.9%). Expatriates represent 43.5% in Germany and 31.6% in French Ligue 1. Compared to one year ago, the percentage of football migrants went up in all big-5 leagues with the exception of the English Premier League (-1.6%).

The biggest increase since 2009 was registered in Italy: from 42.4% to 54.8% (+12.4%), while the strongest growth since November 1st 2013 was measured in the German Bundesliga: from 38.1 to 43.5% (+5.4%).

For the first time in history, the main exporting country is France: 113 players compared to 112 for Brazil (former leader) and Argentina. The strongest increase since 2009 was recorded for Spain (from 17 to 58 players in foreign big-5 leagues). During last year, the biggest growth was for Serbia (28 to 39, +11) and Belgium (31 to 41, +10).

More data is available on request at football.observatory@cies.ch

Height on the pitch: records since 2009

Since the start of the 2014/15 seasons, the teams having fielded the shortest line-ups per league are Barcelona (176.4 cm), Nice (177.0 cm), Empoli (178.2 cm), Hertha (179.4 cm) and Manchester City (179.8 cm).

Conversely, at the head of the rankings of the tallest formations during current season are Stoke City (188.0 cm), Schalke 04 (186.7 cm), Verona (186.2 cm), Monaco (185.5 cm) and Elche (183.6 cm).

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