The first Weekly Post of the year presents the 100 big-5 league players with the highest transfer value according to the exclusive CIES Football Observatory algorithm. The 20-year-old French prodigy Kylian Mbappé (€218.5 million) tops the list ahead of Harry Kane (€200.3m) and Neymar (€197.1m).

Among the 27 footballers with an estimated value of more than €100m, sixteen play in the Premier League, five in the Liga, three in the Serie A, two in the Ligue 1 and one in the Bundesliga. Eleven nations have representatives with an estimated value of more than €100m: Brazil (6 players), England (5), France (5), Argentina (2), Portugal (2), Belgium (2), Egypt (1), Germany (1), Senegal (1), Uruguay (1) and Italy (1).

The transfer values for all big-5 league players are available online. A research note explaining the methodology used by the CIES Football Observatory and the criteria included in the algorithm is accessible here. Please contact us for more information and consultancies.

The last CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post of the year 2018 highlights players whose teams have achieved the most or least points per match when they were in the starting 11 than when this was not the case. The most positive gap in absolute was recorded for Christophe Jallet (OGC Nice): 7 wins out of the 7 matches that he started compared to only 0.44 points per match for the remaining games.

In the other big-5 leagues, the most positive gaps for players who have been present or absent at least five times in the starting 11 were recorded for Diogo Jota (Wolverhampton), Rubén Rochina (Levante), Andreas Beck (Stuttgart) and Goran Pandev (Genoa). Pedro Rodríguez and Ross Barkley were so far also lucky carriers for Chelsea: 100% of points for matches started in both cases.

Conversely, the most negative gaps per championship were registered for Massimo Gobbi (Parma), Gerard Gumbau (Leganés), Denis Zakaria (Borussia Mönchengladbach), Anthony Knockaert (Brighton & Hove) and Olivier Boscagli (OGC Nice). However, it is useful to remind that these results are in part a random fact.

The CIES Football Observatory is pleased to announce the launch of a parallel research group within the Centre International d’Étude du Sport (CIES). Led by Fernando Roitman, this new team focuses on aspects of sports governance, finance, legal and development.

The freshly published ‘Governance Structures at National Association Level’ report focuses on a selection of 20 countries from all six confederations and provides insight into one of the crucial aspects of world football. The study analyses five main areas: General Assembly (GA), Executive Committee (ExCo), President, judicial bodies and reporting activities. As findings are standardised in their form, the document allows benchmarking between individual case studies and the identification of potential trends across different regions of the world.

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Issue number 243 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the top 20 tables for big-5 league players whose transfer values have increased the most during the last three months both in absolute and relative terms. At the head of the two rankings is the fresh English full international and Borussia Dortmund player Jadon Sancho: +€78 million and +806%.

Apart from Sancho, four players have seen their transfer value increase by more than €30M: João Cancelo (Juventus), Andrew Robertson (Liverpool), Richarlison (Everton) and Thilo Kehrer (Paris St-Germain). Many hot prospects are in the top 20 list of players whose value has risen the most in relative terms. The highest figures per league were recorded for Jadon Sancho in Germany, Moise Kean in Italy, Stanley N’Soki in France, Isaac Success in England and Júnior Firpo in Spain.

This analysis was performed using the exclusive CIES Football Observatory algorithm. A detailed explanation of the approach developed is available in this research note. The transfer value of all big-5 league players is freely accessible on the CIES Football Observatory website. The figures published refer to the estimated price for the most likely recruiting club. Moreover, a calculator was developed to allow users assessing the transfer value of players worldwide. However, this tool only provides rough estimates. Deeper analysis is available on demand.

The 40th Monthly Report of the CIES Football Observatory analyses the evolution of competitive balance in 24 European leagues over the last 10 seasons. The study reveals a clear trend towards a greater imbalance. The level of imbalance is particularly marked and on the increase in the big-5 leagues and the Champions League, where the economic divides between teams are very strong.

In 2017/18, big-5 league champions achieved a record of 83.3% of points. This proportion is 10% greater than that measured in 2008/09. Over the ten seasons studied, the biggest average goal difference per match was measured for the UEFA Champions League: 1.58 goals. The premier competition of European football is also that presenting the highest proportion of matches with a goal gap of at least three: 21.0%.

According to the Report, “the concentration of resources goes hand in hand with the concentration of talents. Many teams and leagues are confined to a stepping-stone role for up and coming players. This permits the generation of profits on the transfer market. However, the financial compensations from these transactions are not sufficient to halt the increasing competitive imbalance. The present situation favours the wealthiest clubs. Each day, they increase their sporting, economic and political domination”.

Issue number 242 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post relies on InStat data to present the average effective time of games in 37 European competitions. The Swedish Allsvenskan is the league with the most fluid matches (60.4% of effective time), just ahead the UEFA Champions League (60.2%). The Portuguese Primeira Liga finds itself in the opposite position (50.9%).

The highest effective playing time among the five major European leagues was recorded for the German Bundesliga (58.5%), while the lowest was measured for the Spanish Liga (55.8%). As for the Champions League, Europa League games are more fluid than the average observed at the level of the 35 competitions surveyed: 57.1% of effective time compared to 55.3%.

The highest percentage of minutes in which the ball was in play for clubs in national competitions was recorded for matches of the Swedish side GIF Sundsvall (63.7%). This is 18% more than for games of the Portuguese team Feirense. Club Brugge tops the Champions League table (66.2%), while Borussia Mönchengladbach (62.5%), Liverpool (62.2%), Milan AC (61.2%), Barcelona (60.3%) and Paris St-Germain (60.1%) present the greatest figures for the big-5 leagues.

See also the exclusive CIES Football Observatory Performance Atlas